DASHBOARD
Every model's latest run for one region: totals, run-to-run changes, spread, normals and accuracy.
Next ECMWF ENS run
What the other models, already in, say the next ECMWF ensemble will do to week 1 (Lower 48). ECMWF ENS lands 2–5 hours after the others.
Track record
Forecast stability · days 6–10
The models
Week 1 and week 2 use the same calendar dates for every model; incomplete weeks show their coverage. Run totals cover each model's own forecast length. Colour shows the departure from the 1991–2020 normal and the change from its previous run. Click a column to sort, a row to focus that model.
Day by day
Every model's daily values against the normal (grey). Bands: the ensembles' 10th–90th percentile.
Week 1 and week 2
Total for each model's first and second seven days, against the normal.
By state, next 7 days
In context
The model in focus against every year on record, and how its forecast for the coming week has moved run by run.
Against every year since 1991
Run by run
Model in focus
How the latest run moved from the previous one, and how far its members spread.
Change vs previous run
Ensemble spread by day
Box: 25th–75th percentile of members, line: median. Whisker: 10th–90th, thin line: full range.
Every region
The model in focus for every region at once. Click a row to switch the whole dashboard to it.
Daily table
Every model's daily values. Shading: departure from the normal (blue below, red above). Δ: change from that model's previous run.
Model accuracy
Average error of each model's forecast against observed degree days, by days ahead. Lower is better.