FORECAST GAS
Weighted heating and cooling degree days from every run of the major weather models, member by member, county to Lower 48, with NOAA's observed record and 1991–2020 normals. Free and open.
Lower 48
Every model, Lower 48
Each model's latest full-length run, day by day, against the 1991–2020 normal.
Daily HDD, every model
Latest full-length run of each model. Grey: the 1991–2020 normal.
Today's brief
The site's numbers, written up twice a day.
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Storage
The latest EIA report and the weather-driven estimate of the next ones. Full storage page →
EIA storage regions
ECMWF ENS, next 7 days: gas-heating-weighted HDD and power-burn-weighted CDD against the 1991–2020 normal. Click a region to open it on the dashboard.
Why Forecast Gas
Member by member
Degree days are computed for every ensemble member at every grid cell, then averaged. Averaging temperatures first undercounts by 0.5–1 degree day per day in week two.
Every run
ECMWF ENS, GEFS, GEPS, GFS, GEM, ICON, UKMET and ECMWF AIFS, with run-to-run changes against the previous run and the run 24 hours before.
County to L48
3,108 counties, 49 states, census divisions and the EIA storage regions, all from the same 237,000 population points, so every level adds up exactly.
Observed & normal
NOAA's 5-km nClimGrid-Daily through the same weights, back to 1991, with 1991–2020 and 10-year normals and model accuracy scores.
Explore
Every model, one region
Totals, changes, ensemble spread, normals, accuracy and a state map.
County by county
Each run by day or week: the value, the departure from normal, or what changed since the last run.
What actually happened
The last 60 days, month and season to date, against normal and last year, by region and state.
The gas balance
Production, LNG exports by terminal, pipeline exports and demand by sector, with EIA's STEO projection.
The next three reports
Weather-driven injection and withdrawal estimates, inventory against the 5-year range, and every model's degree days by report week.